Friday, June 8, 2012

The Art of Elections Forecasting

You can say "correlation != causation" all you want, but the simple thing is more $$$ = more advertising, and the more advertising = more votes. IOW more $$$ = more votes.

To a certain extent, this is true.

It must be remembered, however, that there are other ways to "advertise".

The "incumbent advantage" is an obvious one - it's pretty easy to get your name in the news just by proposing a new law, even if you have no intention of following through on it. And the evening news is just more advertising for a

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